Desde primera fila, Israel observa con preocupación cómo sube día a día la tensión diplomática entre Irán y Estados Unidos. El presidente norteamericano Donald Trump envió recientemente un portaaviones y bombarderos al Golfo Pérsico para enfrentar supuestas amenazas iraníes, mientras que el Líder Supremo de la Revolución Islámica Alí Jamenei prometió que “no habrá guerra con Estados Unidos”, pero también, que su país no negociará nuevamente con Washington.
La escalada involucró la semana pasada a otros actores cuando fueron atacadas instalaciones petroleras en Arabia Saudita y buques petroleros con la bandera de ese país, adversario geopolítico de Teherán, convirtiendo a la región en un polvorín.
“No creo que Irán quiera entrar en colisión con Estados Unidos. Lo mínimo que pueden hacer es esperar y desear que Trump no sea reelecto. Si eso sucediera, tendrá que capear la tormenta durante cuatro años”, afirmó a PERFIL Menahem Merhavy, investigador del Instituto Harry S. Truman por la Paz de la Universidad Hebrea de Jerusalén.
Aliado histórico de Washington y enemigo declarado de Teherán, el primer ministro Benjamin Netanyahu fue uno de los artífices en convencer a Trump a abandonar el acuerdo nuclear iraní (JCPOA, según sus siglas en inglés).
“La escalada entre Estados Unidos e Irán es en gran parte por la mala relación que tiene Irán con Israel. Desde el punto de vista de Israel es bueno, porque hay alguien más, en este caso EEUU, que nos hace el ‘trabajo’”, afirmó Ariel Schmidberg, vice editor del diario Israel Hayom.
“Que Trump mande un portaaviones a Medio Oriente hace que el Estado de Israel sienta un apoyo que va mucho más allá de las palabras”, agregó.
No todos comparten ese diagnóstico optimista en Jerusalén y Tel Aviv.
“Israel observa con preocupación la reciente escalada diplomática entre EEUU e Irán, producto de las últimas sanciones económicas impuestas por Trump. De hecho, el gobierno de Netanyahu ha respaldado obviamente a los EEUU, y se puede agregar que Netanyahu ha reivindicado su postura ‘halcona’ en contra del acuerdo. Pero la pregunta es cuál es la alternativa. Dudo que Estados Unidos o Israel (o Irán) quieran una guerra, pero el peligro existe”, declaró Arie Kacowicz, profesor de Relaciones Internacionales de la Universidad Hebrea de Jerusalén.
Mientras Israel analiza el escenario geopolítico, Arabia Saudita, el otro gran actor regional, acusó a Irán de estar detrás del ataque con drones a sus instalaciones petroleras, efectuado por los rebeldes Huthi de Yemen.
“El ataque de las milicias Huthi respaldadas por Irán contra dos estaciones de bombeo de Aramco prueba que estas milicias son un mero instrumento que el régimen iraní utiliza para llevar a cabo su agenda expansionista en la región”, disparó el príncipe Khalid Bin Salmán, hijo del rey y hermano del príncipe heredero Mohamed Bin Salman. Riad, en respuesta, bombardeó posiciones de las milicias chiitas en Saná, la capital de Yemen.
“Es difícil de predecir si el escenario bélico enfrentara a Irán con Arabia Saudita, EEUU e Israel. Los tres países sostienen una alianza tácita (Arabia Saudita-Israel) o abierta (EEUU con sus dos socios del Medio Oriente) en contra de Irán”, explicó Kacowicz, al detallar la complejidad del mapa geopolítico de la región.
ANF
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